NFL Props

No prop edge has been found, and these are not recommendations. Matchup by defence-allowed moved the hit rate 0.1 points; hit-rate streaks against a median line are backwards (hot players go 39%, cold players 55%); and a plain season average beat every projection model built. What this page does is put our calibrated probability next to DraftKings' implied one and grade both, so the ledger can answer whether our number is better. Until there are settled rows, it cannot.

Our number does not know depth chart, snap share, game plan or late injury news — all of which the book does. Where we sit far above the book, the most likely explanation is that we are missing something, not that they are wrong.

Settled (ones we liked)

126

96 open · 707 tracked behind the scenes

Actually hit

54.0%

68/126

We predicted

76.8%

average of our numbers

Book implied

53.9%

whoever is closer wins

Parlays

0/1

59.2% predicted

■ Highest-likelihood parlay — ranked by probability, not by "edge"

B.Tuten — receptions Under 1.5

-113

M.Golden — receptions Under 4.5

-114

K.Murray — rushing yards Over 16.5

-116

G.Smith — rushing yards Under 10.5

-114

1137 · our probability 45.9%

$5 returns $61.85

Legs are multiplied as if independent and taken from different games, because two players in one game move together. Ranked by our probability rather than by the gap to the book: the gap is where the model is most likely to be wrong, not most right.

Graded — the ones we liked (809 more graded in the ledger but never on the board)

	Player	Prop	Actual	We said	Book said	Wk
hit	T.Johnson	receptions Under 1.5	1	71%	63%	5
miss	R.Flournoy	receiving yards Under 31.5	90	71%	52%	5
hit	R.Flournoy	receptions Under 3.5	3	71%	62%	5
miss	K.Gainwell	receiving yards Over 10.5	10	72%	52%	5
hit	K.Gainwell	receptions Over 1.5	3	87%	62%	5
miss	J.Williams	receiving yards Under 15.5	17	79%	52%	5
hit	J.Williams	receptions Under 2.5	2	79%	50%	5
miss	J.Williams	receptions Over 3.5	2	72%	56%	5
miss	J.Daniels	rushing yards Over 30.5	25	72%	53%	5
miss	Z.Flowers	receptions Under 5.5	8	79%	61%	4
miss	X.Worthy	receptions Under 3.5	4	71%	63%	4
miss	W.Robinson	receptions Over 3.5	3	72%	60%	4
hit	W.Marks	receiving yards Under 10.5	0	79%	54%	4
hit	W.Marks	receiving yards Under 9.5	0	79%	55%	4
hit	T.Warren	receiving yards Under 48.5	41	79%	53%	4
hit	T.Warren	receptions Under 5.5	5	79%	55%	4
hit	T.Warren	receiving yards Under 47.5	41	79%	52%	4
miss	T.McMillan	receptions Under 5.5	14	86%	60%	4
hit	T.Lawrence	passing yards Under 263.5	227	84%	53%	4
hit	T.Lawrence	passing yards Under 264.5	227	84%	53%	4
miss	T.Johnson	receptions Over 1.5	1	72%	59%	4
miss	T.Harris	receiving yards Under 33.5	60	71%	52%	4
miss	S.Diggs	receptions Under 4.5	5	71%	62%	4
hit	S.Barkley	receiving yards Under 11.5	2	71%	54%	4
hit	S.Barkley	receptions Under 1.5	1	71%	50%	4
miss	R.Wilson	receptions Under 2.5	3	71%	63%	4
hit	R.Stevenson	rushing yards Over 31.5	47	72%	53%	4
hit	R.Sanders	receiving yards Under 11.5	7	79%	52%	4
miss	R.Sanders	receptions Under 1.5	2	79%	41%	4
hit	R.Sanders	receiving yards Under 12.5	7	79%	54%	4
hit	R.Odunze	receiving yards Over 27.5	94	72%	53%	4
hit	R.Odunze	receiving yards Over 30.5	94	72%	52%	4
hit	R.Harvey	rushing yards Over 16.5	25	72%	53%	4
miss	R.Flournoy	receiving yards Under 31.5	37	71%	52%	4
miss	R.Flournoy	receptions Under 3.5	4	71%	57%	4
miss	R.Doubs	receptions Under 3.5	6	71%	60%	4
miss	R.Bateman	receiving yards Under 33.5	46	79%	52%	4
hit	R.Bateman	receptions Under 2.5	2	93%	47%	4
miss	R.Bateman	receiving yards Under 32.5	46	79%	53%	4
miss	P.Mahomes	passing yards Over 240.5	225	74%	53%	4
miss	P.Mahomes	passing yards Over 239.5	225	74%	53%	4
hit	P.Freiermuth	receptions Under 3.5	3	79%	58%	4
hit	P.Bryant	receiving yards Over 23.5	47	72%	53%	4
miss	N.Collins	receptions Under 5.5	7	71%	55%	4
miss	Mi.Wilson	receptions Under 5.5	7	79%	61%	4
hit	M.Washington	receptions Under 3.5	1	71%	48%	4
hit	M.Stafford	passing yards Over 254.5	317	81%	53%	4
hit	M.Stafford	passing yards Over 251.5	317	81%	53%	4
hit	M.Nabers	receptions Over 4.5	6	72%	59%	4
hit	M.Golden	receiving yards Under 56.5	21	71%	52%	4
hit	M.Golden	receptions Under 4.5	3	86%	53%	4
hit	M.Golden	receiving yards Under 55.5	21	71%	53%	4
hit	M.Andrews	receiving yards Under 37.5	27	79%	53%	4
miss	M.Andrews	receptions Under 3.5	5	71%	45%	4
hit	M.Andrews	receiving yards Under 36.5	27	79%	52%	4
hit	L.McConkey	receiving yards Under 45.5	0	71%	53%	4
hit	J.Wright	rushing yards Under 24.5	7	72%	54%	4
miss	J.Williams	receiving yards Under 13.5	21	71%	53%	4
miss	J.Williams	receptions Under 2.5	5	79%	49%	4
hit	J.Williams	receptions Over 3.5	5	72%	52%	4

Top 12 — best prop per player, strongest first (694 others logged and graded behind the scenes)

Player	Prop	Price	Book implies	Simple	Full model	Proj	His record	Involved
M.WashingtonTODAY Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT	receptions Under 4.5	-111	53%	93%	77%	3.2	92%	100%
B.TutenTODAY Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars · Sun Oct 11, 9:30 AM EDT	rushing yards Under 67.5	-114	53%	86%	88%	37.3	85%	100%
G.HolaniTODAY San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM EDT	rushing yards Under 19.5	-116	54%	86%	57%	15.2	85%	62%
K.Bourne Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants · Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM EDT	receptions Under 2.5	-185	65%	86%	50%	2.5	85%	77%
M.GoldenTODAY Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT	receptions Under 4.5	-114	53%	86%	80%	3.0	85%	100%
D.SwiftTODAY Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT	receptions Under 2.5	-180	64%	86%	56%	2.2	85%	92%
J.DownsTODAY Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT	receptions Under 5.5	-151	60%	86%	83%	3.7	85%	100%
T.AllgeierTODAY Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals · Sun Oct 11, 4:25 PM EDT	receiving yards Under 11.5	-107	52%	86%	47%	13.7	85%	69%
J.DotsonTODAY Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons · Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM EDT	receiving yards Under 20.5	-114	53%	86%	49%	21.2	85%	92%
T.SpearsTODAY Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT	receptions Over 1.5	-185	65%	80%	78%	2.9	85%	92%
C.RidleyTODAY Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT	receptions Over 0.5	-174	64%	80%	81%	2.1	85%	92%
K.MurrayTODAY Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints · Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM EDT	rushing yards Over 16.5	-116	54%	79%	69%	29.3	85%	100%

His record is the raw share of his last 13 active weeks that cleared this line. Simple shrinks that by a curve fitted on 580,000 player-line-games — forward rate is about 0.93× the trailing rate, so a perfect 13-of-13 is really ~93%. Skipping that shrinkage overstates a 3-leg parlay by roughly 5 points.
Full model adds team pass/rush volume, opponent defensive rate, quarterback YPA, the posted total and spread, wind, temperature and indoor — with Proj as its raw projection for the stat. It backtested marginally worse than Simple on accuracy (receiving yards MAE 18.74 vs 18.55), so both are logged and both are graded; the ledger decides. Notably it lands 12.7 points from the book on average against Simple's 15.2, which is what you would expect if those factors are real information the book already uses.
Involved is the share of those weeks he actually got the ball. Below 60% his history describes a bench role while the book is pricing a starter's job, so those legs are kept out of the parlay.
Prices are frozen when logged and never refreshed.
Why nearly everything here is an Under. Not a setting — a consequence. Yards and receptions are right-skewed (a few big games drag the mean above the typical game), and books set lines near the expected value, so the chance of exceeding the line is genuinely under 50%. Measured base rates against a median line: Over hits 47.6% on receiving yards, 47.2% on rushing yards, 43.5% on receptions. Our model sits 9.6 points below the book on Overs and 3.8 above on Unders, and DraftKings charges the same −112 either way. That is consistent with Unders being genuinely live — recreational money prefers Overs — but it is equally consistent with our model simply being wrong about Overs. The graded rows will settle it: if these Unders land near the ~57% we claim rather than the ~47% the book implies, the tilt is real. Nothing was tuned to produce it and nothing has been tuned away.
Every prop is logged and graded in the ledger — calibration needs the whole distribution, since you cannot tell whether a 55% call is well judged by only recording the 85% ones. Only what cleared 70% with enough involvement is shown here, because that is the record of what would actually have been bet. The full-ledger numbers live in data/props_summary.json.