Paper Bankroll

SELECTOR is the strategy — at most 3 bets a slate, ranked by how far the model's probability sits above the de-vigged market's, restricted to prices between −300 and +250 and 70–90% conviction. Backtested on 2,342 CFB games: +3.2% ROI over 236 bets, positive in both test years, survives trimming the best and worst five bets. It is not statistically significant — SE 4.15%, t=0.77, 95% CI −4.9% to +11.3%, and it would take ~1,600 bets to prove. It ships as a hypothesis under test. CONVICTION (every high-conviction pick) and VALUE (strict +EV only) run alongside as controls, so the selector has to beat something.

■ The ticket — what the selector recommends · DraftKings

NO +7.5 + IND +8.5

NFL · MIN @ NO + IND @ PIT · assumed

-120

EV +5.61%

NO +8.5 + IND +8.5

NFL · MIN @ NO + IND @ PIT · assumed

-120

EV +5.61%

NO +8.5 + GB +7.5

NFL · MIN @ NO + CHI @ GB · assumed

-120

EV +5.61%

■ NFL teaser — 4 qualifying legs

NO +2.5 → +8.5

MIN @ NO · crosses 3 and 7

IND +2.5 → +8.5

IND @ PIT · crosses 3 and 7

GB +1.5 → +7.5

CHI @ GB · crosses 3 and 7

CLE +2.5 → +8.5

CLE @ NYJ · crosses 3 and 7

2-team teaser lands57.6%

Check the price before betting. At -140 you need 76.4% per leg — DO NOT BET. At -130 you need 75.2% per leg — OK. At -120 you need 73.9% per leg — OK. At -110 you need 72.4% per leg — OK. Measured 75.9% over 257 legs, above break-even in all five seasons.

Recommended bets — the only record that counts

Profit

+22.46

$5 a bet · staked $60

ROI

+37.4%

backtest said +2.1% at DraftKings

Record

14-3

82.4%

Open

awaiting results

Result	Sport	Bet	Price	Stake	Returned	P&L	Settled
won	MULTI	JAX + Eastern Michigan parlay	-120	$5	$9.18	+4.18	Sun Oct 11, 2:03 PM EDT
won	CFB	Air Force	-298	$0	$0.00	+0.00	Sun Oct 11, 2:08 AM EDT
won	CFB	Air Force + James Madison parlay	-126	$5	$8.98	+3.98	Sun Oct 11, 2:08 AM EDT
won	CFB	Eastern Michigan	-265	$0	$0.00	+0.00	Sat Oct 10, 8:03 PM EDT
won	NFL	NYG +8.5 + ATL +8.5	-120	$5	$9.17	+4.17	Tue Oct 6, 2:01 AM EDT
won	NFL	NYG +8.5 + ATL +7.5	-120	$5	$9.17	+4.17	Tue Oct 6, 2:01 AM EDT
lost	MULTI	Arizona + BUF + Tennessee parlay	152	$5	$0.00	-5.00	Sun Oct 4, 8:04 PM EDT
won	NFL	DAL +8.5 + NYG +7.5	-120	$5	$9.17	+4.17	Sun Oct 4, 8:04 PM EDT
lost	CFB	Arizona + South Florida parlay	101	$5	$0.00	-5.00	Sun Oct 4, 8:11 AM EDT
lost	CFB	South Florida	-250	$0	$0.00	+0.00	Sun Oct 4, 2:04 AM EDT
won	CFB	Central Michigan	-250	$0	$0.00	+0.00	Sat Oct 3, 8:05 PM EDT
won	CFB	Liberty	-285	$0	$0.00	+0.00	Sat Oct 3, 2:04 AM EDT
won	NFL	DET	-292	$5	$6.71	+1.71	Sun Sep 27, 8:04 PM EDT
won	CFB	James Madison	-225	$5	$7.22	+2.22	Sun Sep 27, 2:10 AM EDT
won	CFB	Arkansas	-270	$5	$6.85	+1.85	Sun Sep 27, 2:10 AM EDT
won	CFB	Jacksonville State	-285	$5	$6.75	+1.75	Sun Sep 27, 2:10 AM EDT

Which markets may carry a bet

Market	Status	Backtested	n	Why
moneyline	in parlays	+3.2%	236	in-band picks only; +3.2% over 236 bets, t=0.77
spread	excluded	-2.3%	1,581	51.2% at the best number across books; 52.38% needed
total	excluded	-1.1%	3,134	51.8% on the full sample; the +3.8% version silently dropped the 2,160 games without Elo, which lost 7.3%

A parlay multiplies its legs, so a losing market does not add variety — it drags the whole ticket down. Spread and total candidates are built every run with the best number shopped across books; they are then rejected here. Shopping the number is worth 1.2–1.8 points of ROI on its own, just not enough to clear the vig on those markets. Flip enabled in sports/paper_book.py if that ever changes.

selector · profit

+22.46

17 settled · staked $60

selector · ROI

+37.4%

14-3

conviction · profit

-23.13

81 settled · staked $405

conviction · ROI

-5.7%

61-20

Open

awaiting results

All open positions (selector + controls)

Strategy	Sport	Event	Selection	Price	Book	Conviction	EV	Stake
selector	NFL	MIN @ NO + IND @ PIT	NO +7.5 + IND +8.5	-120	assumed	58%	+5.61%	$5
selector	NFL	MIN @ NO + IND @ PIT	NO +8.5 + IND +8.5	-120	assumed	58%	+5.61%	$5
selector	NFL	MIN @ NO + CHI @ GB	NO +8.5 + GB +7.5	-120	assumed	58%	+5.61%	$5
conviction	NFL	CIN @ MIA	CIN	-345	DraftKings	73%	-1.80%	$5
conviction	NFL	CHI @ GB	GB	-417	DraftKings	71%	-3.22%	$5
conviction	NFL	LV @ NE	NE	-336	DraftKings	71%	-4.92%	$5
conviction	NFL	HOU @ TEN	HOU	-340	DraftKings	71%	-5.35%	$5

Control books — 4 open, for comparison only

Not advice. The conviction book stakes every high-conviction pick regardless of price — it measures what blindly following the model costs, and is expected to lose about the hold. The value book only fires when the price beats the de-vigged consensus. The selector has to beat both to be worth anything.

Book	Ticket	Legs	Price	$5 returns	EV
conviction	CIN	1	-345	$6.45	-1.8%
conviction	GB	1	-417	$6.20	-3.2%
conviction	NE	1	-336	$6.49	-4.9%
conviction	HOU	1	-340	$6.47	-5.3%

Settled

Result	Strategy	Sport	Event	Selection	Price	Stake	Returned	P&L
won	selector	MULTI	PHI @ JAX + Eastern Michigan @ Akron	JAX + Eastern Michigan	-120	$5	$9.18	+4.18
won	conviction	NFL	PHI @ JAX	JAX	-285	$5	$6.75	+1.75
lost	conviction	CFB	LSU @ Kentucky	LSU	-355	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	CFB	Air Force @ Northern Illinois	Air Force	-325	$5	$6.54	+1.54
won	conviction	CFB	James Madison @ Georgia Southern	James Madison	-340	$5	$6.47	+1.47
won	conviction	CFB	UAB @ Memphis	Memphis	-600	$5	$5.83	+0.83
won	conviction	CFB	Syracuse @ Virginia	Virginia	-360	$5	$6.39	+1.39
won	conviction	CFB	Nevada @ UTEP	Nevada	-355	$5	$6.41	+1.41
won	selector	CFB	Air Force @ Northern Illinois	Air Force	-298	$0	$0.00	+0.00
won	selector	CFB	Air Force @ Northern Illinois + James Madison @ Georgia Southern	Air Force + James Madison	-126	$5	$8.98	+3.98
lost	conviction	CFB	Texas @ Oklahoma	Texas	-380	$5	$0.00	-5.00
lost	conviction	CFB	UCLA @ Oregon	Oregon	-485	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	CFB	Indiana @ Nebraska	Indiana	-360	$5	$6.39	+1.39
lost	conviction	CFB	South Carolina @ Florida	Florida	-520	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	CFB	Kent State @ Western Michigan	Western Michigan	-575	$5	$5.87	+0.87
won	conviction	CFB	Rice @ East Carolina	East Carolina	-380	$5	$6.32	+1.32
lost	conviction	CFB	Virginia Tech @ California	Virginia Tech	-355	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	CFB	Tennessee @ Arkansas	Tennessee	-550	$5	$5.91	+0.91
lost	conviction	CFB	Old Dominion @ App State	App State	-375	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	CFB	Eastern Michigan @ Akron	Eastern Michigan	-278	$5	$6.80	+1.80
won	selector	CFB	Eastern Michigan @ Akron	Eastern Michigan	-265	$0	$0.00	+0.00
won	conviction	CFB	Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	-375	$5	$6.33	+1.33
won	conviction	CFB	UCF @ Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State	-455	$5	$6.10	+1.10
lost	conviction	UFC	Brendson Ribeiro vs Felipe Franco	Felipe Franco	-330	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	UFC	Gerald Meerschaert vs Julius Walker	Julius Walker	-275	$5	$6.82	+1.82
lost	conviction	UFC	Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris	RJ Harris	-320	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	CFB	Iowa State @ BYU	BYU	-410	$5	$6.22	+1.22
lost	conviction	NFL	TB @ DAL	DAL	-500	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	CFB	Sam Houston @ Liberty	Liberty	-600	$5	$5.83	+0.83
won	conviction	CFB	Southern Miss @ Troy	Troy	-355	$5	$6.41	+1.41
lost	conviction	UFC	Preston LaGrange vs Nell Ariano	Nell Ariano	-420	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	UFC	Mateus Soares vs Ryuho Miyaguchi	Mateus Soares	-350	$5	$6.43	+1.43
won	selector	NFL	ARI @ NYG + ATL @ NO	NYG +8.5 + ATL +8.5	-120	$5	$9.17	+4.17
won	selector	NFL	ARI @ NYG + ATL @ NO	NYG +8.5 + ATL +7.5	-120	$5	$9.17	+4.17
lost	selector	MULTI	Cincinnati @ Arizona + NE @ BUF + Auburn @ Tennessee	Arizona + BUF + Tennessee	152	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	selector	NFL	DAL @ HOU + ARI @ NYG	DAL +8.5 + NYG +7.5	-120	$5	$9.17	+4.17
lost	conviction	NFL	NE @ BUF	BUF	-290	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	NFL	LAC @ SEA	SEA	-380	$5	$6.32	+1.32
won	conviction	NFL	MIA @ MIN	MIN	-600	$5	$5.83	+0.83
won	conviction	NFL	NYJ @ CHI	CHI	-536	$5	$5.93	+0.93
won	conviction	CFB	Cincinnati @ Arizona	Arizona	-258	$5	$6.94	+1.94
lost	selector	CFB	Cincinnati @ Arizona + Temple @ South Florida	Arizona + South Florida	101	$5	$0.00	-5.00
lost	selector	CFB	Temple @ South Florida	South Florida	-250	$0	$0.00	+0.00
won	conviction	CFB	Texas Tech @ Colorado	Texas Tech	-485	$5	$6.03	+1.03
won	conviction	CFB	UL Monroe @ South Alabama	South Alabama	-575	$5	$5.87	+0.87
won	conviction	CFB	Washington @ USC	USC	-375	$5	$6.33	+1.33
won	conviction	CFB	UTSA @ Rice	UTSA	-455	$5	$6.10	+1.10
lost	conviction	CFB	Temple @ South Florida	South Florida	-250	$5	$0.00	-5.00
lost	conviction	UFC	Roman Kopylov vs Ateba Gautier	Ateba Gautier	-210	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	CFB	Arkansas @ Texas A&M	Texas A&M	-575	$5	$5.87	+0.87
won	selector	CFB	Akron @ Central Michigan	Central Michigan	-250	$0	$0.00	+0.00
lost	conviction	CFB	Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)	Miami (OH)	-575	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	CFB	Auburn @ Tennessee	Tennessee	-285	$5	$6.75	+1.75
won	conviction	CFB	Western Michigan @ Buffalo	Western Michigan	-600	$5	$5.83	+0.83
won	conviction	CFB	Stanford @ Wake Forest	Wake Forest	-535	$5	$5.93	+0.93
won	conviction	CFB	UCF @ Houston	Houston	-455	$5	$6.10	+1.10
lost	conviction	CFB	Purdue @ Illinois	Illinois	-375	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	CFB	Michigan State @ Wisconsin	Wisconsin	-410	$5	$6.22	+1.22
won	conviction	CFB	Akron @ Central Michigan	Central Michigan	-250	$5	$7.00	+2.00
won	conviction	UFC	Andrey Pulyaev vs Damian Pinas	Damian Pinas	-530	$5	$5.94	+0.94
won	conviction	UFC	Anthony Wint vs Lucas Armand	Anthony Wint	-520	$5	$5.96	+0.96
won	selector	CFB	Liberty @ Delaware	Liberty	-285	$0	$0.00	+0.00
won	conviction	CFB	Liberty @ Delaware	Liberty	-285	$5	$6.75	+1.75
won	conviction	NFL	LAC @ BUF	BUF	-310	$5	$6.61	+1.61
won	conviction	NFL	KC @ MIA	KC	-575	$5	$5.87	+0.87
lost	conviction	NFL	SEA @ WAS	SEA	-360	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	conviction	NFL	NYJ @ DET	DET	-305	$5	$6.64	+1.64
won	conviction	NFL	ARI @ SF	SF	-440	$5	$6.14	+1.14
won	selector	NFL	NYJ @ DET	DET	-292	$5	$6.71	+1.71
won	conviction	NFL	TEN @ NYG	NYG	-305	$5	$6.64	+1.64
lost	conviction	CFB	Minnesota @ Washington	Washington	-395	$5	$0.00	-5.00
won	selector	CFB	James Madison @ Old Dominion	James Madison	-225	$5	$7.22	+2.22
won	selector	CFB	Tulsa @ Arkansas	Arkansas	-270	$5	$6.85	+1.85
won	selector	CFB	Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State	Jacksonville State	-285	$5	$6.75	+1.75
won	conviction	CFB	Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State	Jacksonville State	-285	$5	$6.75	+1.75
won	conviction	CFB	Florida Atlantic @ UL Monroe	Florida Atlantic	-485	$5	$6.03	+1.03
won	conviction	CFB	Oregon State @ UTEP	Oregon State	-440	$5	$6.14	+1.14
won	conviction	CFB	Rice @ Fresno State	Fresno State	-550	$5	$5.91	+0.91
won	conviction	CFB	Tulsa @ Arkansas	Arkansas	-270	$5	$6.85	+1.85
won	conviction	CFB	Texas A&M @ LSU	LSU	-360	$5	$6.39	+1.39

Selection rules: conviction threshold per sport (UFC 65%, NFL/CFB 70%), the pick must agree with the market's side (every model tested loses when it fades the market — UFC 31.4%, NFL 42.4%, CFB 43.4%), and nothing shorter than −600 is staked. EV is computed against the de-vigged consensus, never the raw model, because on the games this bets the model and market hit identically and letting the model set the probability just invents edge.
Prices are recorded when the bet is made and never refreshed — grading against a later number would score the book on a price it never had.