UFC Predictor

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Sat Oct 10, 5:00 PM EDT · Updated Sun Oct 11, 2:02 PM EDT
● BLENDED 75% MARKET Winner picks pool fighter data with the de-vigged closing line — fitted at 73.2% vs 64.7% model-only. Method & round props stay model-driven.
UFC NFL CFB Bankroll Props
Pick Accuracy
47.8%
155/324 picks (winner + method + O/U)
Winner Accuracy
50.0%
56/112 fight winners
Method Accuracy
47.2%
50/106 KO/Dec/Sub
Over/Under
46.2%
49/106 distance calls
This Card
12
1 strong BET picks
Prelims
W Flyweight · 3R PASS
Melissa Gatto
39.2%
-115
VS
Ernesta Kareckaite
+107
60.8%
Win Method
Decision
E. Kareckaite · 51%
KO/TKO
E. Kareckaite · 22%
KO/TKO
M. Gatto · 10%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
39% · -345
Under 1.5
32%
Under 2.5
61% · +280
Exp. Rounds
2.1
Goes Distance
70%
Confidence
79.1%
W Bantamweight · 3R PASS
Daria Zhelezniakova
38.2%
VS
Alice Pereira
61.8%
Win Method
KO/TKO
A. Pereira · 36%
Decision
D. Zhelezniakova · 29%
Decision
A. Pereira · 15%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 1.5
36%
Under 2.5
65%
Exp. Rounds
2.0
Goes Distance
64%
Confidence
68.7%
Heavyweight · 3R PASS
Allen Frye Jr.
35.8%
+298
VS
RJ Harris
-355
64.2%
Win Method
KO/TKO
R. Harris · 31%
KO/TKO
A. Jr. · 23%
Decision
A. Jr. · 17%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
54% · +101
Over 2.5
28%
Under 1.5
46% · -118
Under 2.5
72%
Exp. Rounds
1.6
Goes Distance
46%
Confidence
51.4%
Light Heavyweight · 3R PASS
Brendson Ribeiro
66.3%
+320
VS
Felipe Franco
-370
33.7%
Win Method
Submission
B. Ribeiro · 38%
Decision
B. Ribeiro · 30%
KO/TKO
B. Ribeiro · 22%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
56% · +128
Over 2.5
30%
Under 1.5
44% · -150
Under 2.5
70%
Exp. Rounds
1.7
Goes Distance
55%
Confidence
79.7%
Welterweight · 3R PASS
Niko Price
62.7%
+123
VS
Leon Shahbazyan
-140
37.3%
Win Method
KO/TKO
N. Price · 52%
Decision
N. Price · 23%
Submission
N. Price · 19%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
51% · +193
Over 2.5
26%
Under 1.5
49% · -230
Under 2.5
74%
Exp. Rounds
1.6
Goes Distance
40%
Confidence
90.8%
Lightweight · 3R PASS
Ismael Bonfim
56.9%
+124
VS
Francisco Prado
-142
43.1%
Win Method
Decision
I. Bonfim · 37%
KO/TKO
F. Prado · 23%
KO/TKO
I. Bonfim · 21%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
61% · -195
Over 2.5
33% · -115
Under 1.5
39% · +170
Under 2.5
67% · -115
Exp. Rounds
1.9
Goes Distance
58%
Confidence
75.5%
Light Heavyweight · 3R ✓ BET
Gerald Meerschaert
27.6%
+1000
VS
Julius Walker
-1600
72.4%
Win Method
Decision
J. Walker · 33%
KO/TKO
J. Walker · 32%
Submission
J. Walker · 18%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
59% · +103
Over 2.5
31%
Under 1.5
41% · -120
Under 2.5
69%
Exp. Rounds
1.8
Goes Distance
53%
Confidence
90.5%
Main Card
Bantamweight · 3R PASS
Otari Tanzilovi
59.6%
+177
VS
Malcolm Wellmaker
-190
40.4%
Win Method
KO/TKO
O. Tanzilovi · 46%
Submission
O. Tanzilovi · 20%
Decision
O. Tanzilovi · 17%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
27% · +100
Under 1.5
48%
Under 2.5
73% · -115
Exp. Rounds
1.6
Goes Distance
48%
Confidence
79.0%
Featherweight · 3R PASS
Andre Fili
58.6%
VS
Kai Kamaka III
41.4%
Win Method
Decision
A. Fili · 30%
KO/TKO
A. Fili · 27%
Decision
K. III · 21%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 1.5
34%
Under 2.5
63%
Exp. Rounds
2.0
Goes Distance
66%
Confidence
78.8%
W Strawweight · 3R PASS
Ketlen Souza
59.7%
VS
Loopy Godínez
40.3%
Win Method
Decision
K. Souza · 32%
KO/TKO
K. Souza · 24%
Submission
K. Souza · 15%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 1.5
37%
Under 2.5
65%
Exp. Rounds
2.0
Goes Distance
62%
Confidence
72.4%
Co-Main
Lightweight · 3R PASS
Jai Herbert
63.0%
+165
VS
Matheus Camilo
-188
37.0%
Win Method
Decision
J. Herbert · 37%
KO/TKO
J. Herbert · 19%
Submission
J. Herbert · 15%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
64% · -170
Over 2.5
35% · +110
Under 1.5
36% · +146
Under 2.5
65% · -145
Exp. Rounds
2.0
Goes Distance
69%
Confidence
76.0%
Main Event
Middleweight · 5R PASS
Brendan Allen
60.5%
-109
VS
Christian Leroy Duncan
+100
39.5%
Win Method
Decision
B. Allen · 38%
Submission
B. Allen · 36%
KO/TKO
B. Allen · 16%
Round Totals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
42% · -124
Over 4.5
19%
Under 1.5
12%
Under 2.5
31%
Under 3.5
58% · +106
Under 4.5
81%
Exp. Rounds
3.2
Goes Distance
54%
Confidence
88.7%

📈 Odds Movement This Week

Julius Walker
-275 → -1600 ▼1325
Gerald Meerschaert
240 → 1000 ▲760
Ismael Bonfim
-106 → 124 ▲230
Felipe Franco
-330 → -370 ▼40
RJ Harris
-320 → -355 ▼35
Francisco Prado
-109 → -142 ▼33
Brendson Ribeiro
295 → 320 ▲25
Allen Frye Jr.
276 → 298 ▲22
Malcolm Wellmaker
-205 → -190 ▲15
Otari Tanzilovi
190 → 177 ▼13
Niko Price
134 → 123 ▼11
Christian Leroy Duncan
110 → 100 ▼10

🎯 Accuracy by Card

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
W 58.3% (7/12)
M 50.0% (5/10)
O/U 40.0% (4/10)
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
W 41.7% (5/12)
M 45.5% (5/11)
O/U 36.4% (4/11)
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
W 42.9% (6/14)
M 50.0% (7/14)
O/U 57.1% (8/14)
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Ro…
W 53.8% (7/13)
M 41.7% (5/12)
O/U 41.7% (5/12)
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
W 36.4% (4/11)
M 36.4% (4/11)
O/U 45.5% (5/11)
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
W 57.1% (8/14)
M 38.5% (5/13)
O/U 38.5% (5/13)
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
W 58.3% (7/12)
M 33.3% (4/12)
O/U 41.7% (5/12)
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
W 50.0% (6/12)
M 54.5% (6/11)
O/U 27.3% (3/11)
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
W 50.0% (6/12)
M 75.0% (9/12)
O/U 83.3% (10/12)

🔄 Refresh Log

18:03:26=== Daily refresh complete in 205.7s ===
18:03:26 paper report: exit 0 conviction 81 61-20 $4…
18:03:26 paper log: exit 0 log : {"considered": 100, "newly_logged…
18:03:22 paper settle: exit 0 grade: {"settled": 2, "total_on_file"…
18:03:17Step 6: Settling and logging paper bets...
18:03:17 parlay 1 0 0.0% 59.2% 6.9% -…
18:03:17 single 930 465 50.0% 50.0% 52.9% …
18:03:17 board 126 68 54.0% 76.8% 53.9% …
18:03:16Step 5c: NFL props tracking...
18:03:16 cfb grade: {'graded': 172, 'su': {'correct': 117, 'total':…